
What to think of the newly formed Prediction Market Industr
What to think of the newly formed Prediction Market Industry Association?
Niall O'Connor:
From what I have seen to date, the prediction markets lobby merely represents an attempt by a coterie of interest groups to throw of what they see as being the stigma that is associated with the term betting markets. [...]
I think it is fair to say that the matter of what constitutes a prediction [...]
Author: Chris. F. Masse
Category: Analysis (Industry) Analysis (Meta)
Publish Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2007 09:57:49 +0000
Niall O'Connor:
Quote:
From what I have seen to date, the prediction markets lobby merely represents an attempt by a coterie of interest groups to throw of what they see as being the stigma that is associated with the term betting markets. [...]
I think it is fair to say that the matter of what constitutes a prediction market has yet to be resolved; not least, when it is clear that traditional betting markets can be and are just as predictive as these so called "prediction markets." (And for the pedants out there - yes, even in the case of traditional horse race pari-mutuel betting markets, where research has shown that in the Hong Kong and New Zealand betting markets, there is no favourite-longshot bias.)
Sadly, the impression that one is left with, is that those seeking to promote the prediction market industry, are guilty of cherry picking, in order to suit their own vested interests.
The fact that markets aggregate data and can be predictive is nothing new. Seeking to ringfence a subset of said markets and attaching a new industry definition to them is a perilous exercise to say the least.
On a slightly different note, I also liked one part of
Jed Christiansen's comment.
Judge by yourself:
Prediction Market Industry Association
Previously:
MIDAS ORACLE STATEMENT ON THE PREDICTION MARKET INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION
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Description: Prediction Markets For All